S
Subhash Kak
Guest
India as heartland geographically, in terms of population, and growth in 21st century
Look at any map of Eurasia. Geographically, Bharat is the heartland, with the Inner Rimland of east and south Europe to the northwest, Asian steppes to the north, China to the east, and Indonesia to the southeast. Bharat is close not only to these regions, but also to Africa across the sea. Beyond this is the Outer Rimland, which consists of western and northern Europe, Scandinavia and northern Russia. In the last few centuries, the Americas have become a new rim beyond to the Eurasian continent.
The map above is not an arbitrary one to make Bharat the center of the old world. It is the geographical heartland for it connects to Australasia and Africa at the periphery of the Indian Ocean, and to the far-flung landmasses of Asia across the Himalayas. India was also the economic heartland for the world economy with an estimated 30 to 40% of the share until the colonial times; it was and is the most populated region; it had the most advanced sciences until the end of the Vijayanagara Empire in mid-16th century; and it had the most extensive literature of any ancient culture [1].
Historical GDP of various regions: India was mostly at the top until 1700s
Bharat is also expected to be the world’s largest economy by the end of the twenty-first century, and even though it may not be first in per capita income, it is expected to be the engine for the world’s economic growth for the next several decades. No wonder that many are saying that the 21st century will be the Indian Century [2].
With its amazing monuments and fabulous temples, India was historically the land of riches that the Turks, the Arabs, and the Europeans wished to conquer. When the overland route from Europe to India was severed, the search for India via the sea led to the discovery of the Americas, and spurred naval exploration that led in turn to European colonialism around the world.
For any powerful empire to project power across the continents, it has been essential to dominate India. If the nineteenth century was the British Century, it is because Britain controlled India, and transferred wealth estimated to be around $45 trillion to the UK.
British policies deindustrialized India (in favor of its newly established factories emerging from the industrial revolution of the early 19th century) and an estimated 100 million people died in famines precipitated by colonial policies. India became so poor that it was easy for the UK to recruit soldiers for the imperial army that served around the globe and played a large part in projecting British power during the two World Wars.
Knowing the centrality of India in geopolitics, Britain, when it left, chose to hobble India by creating a deeply antagonistic Pakistan to its west.
The twentieth century became the American Century by default as the European nations were exhausted by the two World Wars, and Asian nations were still trying to adapt to modernity and China had been bled by its own civil wars (Taiping and the later one between KMT and CCP). India remained crushed by British colonial rule and its share of the world economy had plummeted from nearly 20% in 1800 to less than 2% by 1920.
India is resurgent again and its share of the world economy has reached about 9%, and it is expected to be the second largest economy by 2050 (see chart above). India is an active agent in world affairs, its diaspora is the wealthiest in the world, and its influence will only increase in the coming years.
Control of India
Napoleon, with his masterful understanding of history, knew that the power of his arch-enemy Britain rested on the control of India, “the jewel in the British crown”. He proposed to Tsar Paul I of Russia that the French and the Russians should jointly invade India. But Paul was assassinated in 1801 and the plan shelved, for Paul’s son Tsar Alexander was not very enthused about the proposal.
In 1807, Napoleon sent a French military mission to Iran, and Britain countered with its own diplomatic missions to Iran and Afghanistan. Soon afterwards, Russia went to war with Qajar Iran and invaded the Persian Caucasus from 1804–1813, adding to Britain’s fears.
Russia was building a vast empire in the European landmass in the 19th century, and soon it came face to face with the British spheres of influence . Britain aimed to create a protectorate in Afghanistan, and support the Ottoman Empire and other regions of the inner rim as buffer states against Russian expansion to protect its Indian empire.
The two Anglo-Afghan Wars of the nineteenth century were a result of this strategy, for Britain felt that if Russia were to gain control of Afghanistan, it might then be used as a staging post for an invasion of India.
The two World Wars may also be seen as a contest for power in the rimlands for continuing domination of the central region. Although Britain and Allies triumphed in both Wars, it weakened Britain enough so that it was forced to grant independence to India. However, it passed on the power to an elite class that would largely continue British policies for nearly five decades.
A reawakening is taking place now, with an attempt to see the world through the Indic lens rather than the colonial one.
Despite the horrors of the colonial experience, India has shown great resilience, and it has jumped into the top 3 economies of the world according to PPP dollars, and top 5 according to nominal dollars. Now India is rich enough to project its power in a manner that helps its national and civilizational objectives. If the nineteenth century was the Great Game between Russia and Britain for control of an India without a voice, the twenty-first century will be the Great Game Redux between China, India, and the United States.
Pakistan
Pakistan is also a part of the Eurasian heartland, but the choices it made early on have taken it to being a near-failed state. Its politics is seeped in obscurantism, it has hate for its own past, and now its population — like that of Afghanistan — is too deeply radicalized for it to participate as a successful technology based economy.
For some time, it took advantage of the centrality of the region by forming alliances with the US and now with China, to act as foil to India or to Russia. But now it is caught in a debt trap and its blasphemy laws make it impossible for it to be a modern, forward-looking state. It also suffers from lack of self-awareness, as symbolized by its previous naïve prime minister Imran Khan going about the world complaining of Islamophobia, just as a Sri Lankan manager in a factory in Punjab had been burnt to death by enraged workers for the crime of tearing down a poster with Arabic on it.
India should not resume trade or other bilateral relations with Pakistan until it makes fundamental reforms including constitutionally guaranteed minority rights, abolition of blasphemy laws, and stopping aid to terrorist groups. If India were to open up to Pakistan, that will become the doorway through which Pakistani problems will get transferred to India.
If Pakistan slides further the way of Afghanistan, the resulting crisis will create the energy that the reformist voices in Pakistan need to recast the country in a new way, with a new constitution based on humanism.
Notes
[1] S. Kak, The Idea of India: Bharat as a Civilization.
[2] https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/b...ntury-ibm-chief-virginia-rometty-1522457.html
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